The Twelve Nations I’m Watching for the Next Decade
What global trends can we expect in the coming years?
To my followers and subscribers: a happy new year! Thank you for reading my newsletter in 2025. I look forward to continuing to share my thoughts and analyses with you in the coming year. As you may know, the second quarter of the 21st century is upon us: it starts on January 1, 2026. It is hard to imagine that 25 years have already passed since the century began. My middle school recollections of the September 11 attacks and the Iraq War are but a distant memory. The world has changed significantly since that era.
What follows are some of my thoughts on where the world is going in the next few years and which twelve countries — other than the United States — I’m following closely due to the impact I think they will have on the course on the next quarter of a century.
Before I continue to the rest of my essay, I am soliciting feedback on the types of posts and pieces you — my readers — enjoyed and what you would like to see more of. More longform essays or shorter blog-like posts? More on history or more on religion or something else? More on India or Europe or Persia or on other parts of the world? While I have dozens of articles on various topics of my choosing already laid out, I will also incorporate the feedback I receive into my planning.
Global Trends
The United States
It goes without saying that the United States will continue to be one of the most important and dynamic countries in the world for the next quarter century. Because everyone follows it and is impacted by it — often by virtue of simply being alive and having access to the internet — I take it as a given that everyone is aware of American political and social trends. Thus, this is a list of impactful countries in addition to the United States.
It is my observation that many people underestimate the continued staying power of the United States, and how much of the world’s financial and military apparatus is dominated by the U.S., and how much concentration of money and talent there is in the U.S. No country can build a comparable amount of wealth and power to compete with the U.S. anytime in the next decade or two — not even China.
Even if American economic and military power declines in proportion to other countries, the U.S. still sets worldwide cultural and technological trends. This will not taper off quickly. In fact, in many of the emerging fields where technology and culture converge, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and social media, the U.S. is the pioneer and leader, the laboratory of new social trends across the world. If the world’s countries are a laboratory of ideas, then the U.S. still has some of the most interesting and impactful ones.
That being said, the unipolar world dominated by a single superpower, the U.S., is a thing of the past, and we have moved to a multipolar world with many powers, in which the U.S. is simply the premiere power. We have reentered the default global norm of great power politics and a balance of power. It was a rare, brief convergence of geopolitical events that enabled the world to be singularly dominated by one country.
I have noticed a few things about U.S. attitudes that are concerning. One is that Americans are behind the times in understanding what’s going on in the rest of the world, how the rest of the world has changed in the last quarter-century. Much of this is based on my discussions with numerous other Americans as well as anecdotes and observations from the media. Whether on the left or the right, there is still a belief that U.S. political structure and culture are in a class of their own, which of course, everyone wants to emulate. But the world has moved beyond this.
The influence of the American model is declining relative to other models. Global trends are being created in places such as South Korea (KPop) and Dubai (Dubai chocolate). Other places have figured out how to do things more efficiently, whether infrastructure or creating a workable multicultural social model. Developing cities are looking to emulate Abu Dhabi, Singapore and Shanghai, not San Francisco or New York.
I have also observed that American mental models of the world are often not up to date, having been formed many decades ago. It was said that China would never be able to compete with the West, technologically, because it did not provide enough freedom for innovation or creative thinking. This did not turn out to be true. It was also said that history had a direction and that economic and political liberation would go hand in hand. This, also did not turn out to be true. Many in the West also believed — and continue to believe — that India is a poverty-stricken place mired in poverty, disease, and slums. This is no longer true. While Indians are not yet rolling in wealth, most Indians today have electricity, running water, phones, televisions, have enough food, and are literate. India has some of the best trains and airports and industries in the world.
The Arab world has proven — contrary to Western belief — that social and political liberation do not necessarily need to work in tandem, and are in fact sometimes at odds with one another. It was believed in many quarters that unless the Arab world followed the path of the West, it would remained mired in poverty, corruption, and religious fanaticism. Conversely, many pessimistically believed that the poverty and extremism of that region would never be overcome, no matter what policies were enacted. The top-down royal-led economic and social liberation of the Gulf Arab states has proven this thinking wrong. Yet today, many people still think that Saudi Arabia mandates the burqa and that Dubai is not worth learning about because it is “fake” and “built by slave labor” (none of these things are true).
One other thing that I have noticed is that many Americans are contrarian or hesitant toward new sociopolitical or technological ideas that are being adopted in the rest of the world. High-speed rail and solar energy are simply new technologies that do not necessarily have a political element. There are obviously certain economic and social trade-offs but on the whole, I believe that we should be techno-optimists (though I suspect that AI will either eventually displace humans or be totally excised). Individuals can and should opt out of technologies they do not desire to use, and truly dangerous or harmful products should be excised from society, but as a whole, countries should keep up with global best practices. Sometimes, this is out of necessity: recall that peoples who failed to adopt gunpowder in time were often conquered.
So the world is moving forward in an interesting number of directions, some surprising, some long-evident. Here are a few overarching other global trends that I want to highlight.
Neoliberalism
Regardless of the specific cultural and political conditions that may prevail in a region or country, the dominant socioeconomic trend is toward (the oft maligned) idea of neoliberalism. Neoliberalism is basically the triumph of development and modernity and all that entails. It is characterized by the spread of free markets and capitalism, enterprise, trade, and “individualistic,” “atomized,” “market” behaviors associated with this model. It moves beyond traditional social frameworks because it relies on a legal and economic framework that is not centered on the village or the family and traditional practices. It does not necessarily preclude government intervention and social services; in fact, social programs are often mixed with market economics by necessity, in order for society to cohere. It also does not necessarily mean political freedom — in fact, political liberalism is in decline. Nor is it mutually exclusive with the growing phenomenon of nationalism and civilizational pride.
It is interesting that some of the key components of neoliberalism are now combined with elements of populism, nationalism, and civilizational regeneration. I would go as far to argue that all of these ideas and philosophies are only workable in tandem with each other. Nationalism cannot really take off as a continuously workable ideology without economic prosperity and the political and military strength that comes from that. Neoliberalism without any sort of cultural and civilizational links will just fizzle out because humans are a community-oriented species.
Neoliberalism has triumphed as a socioeconomic force because it has been demonstrated that it is the surest way to wealth, malls, smartphones, individual self-realization, and all the other perks of modernity. All other socioeconomic models have failed to achieve this. And because everyone is the world is aware that development is a possibility, they seek these things and pressure their leaders to provide these things. Leaders and elites have their own reasons for pursuing development, so the phenomenon of modernity continues to move forward everywhere, as I detailed in a post a few weeks ago.
These policies have led to prosperity across the world, wherever they have been adopted, regardless of their political system. China is a prime example of this. Meanwhile, countries that have tried to insulate themselves from these policies, doing things their own way, remaining isolated from global currents — such as Iran — have stagnated.
I remember reading somewhere the assertation that no political ideology can help people find meaning and purpose in life or create perfect social conditions. People will be happy or miserable, fulfilled or empty, based on their beliefs, health, friendships, life circumstances, and many other factors. However, development at least ensures that while they pursue happiness, they can live above the subsistence level, enjoying the fruits of better medical care, access to hobbies, technology, entertainment services, libraries, and the like. It is instructive that when Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in Syria, his successor Ahmed al-Sharaa moved toward a market economy and began integrating his country into the world system.
It is better to be unhappy about life in France than in South Sudan! Ultimately, people just want to go to cafes to hang out, or attend rock concerts, or watch anime and follow pop idols.
This is not to say that I have fully embraced this ideology on a personal level and abjured my previously professed interest in the ancient ways. But I have been convinced lately — based on empirical observation and through discussion with various relevant parties — that people around the world seem to desire the fruits of neoliberalism and are much happier when their societies move in that direction than they would be otherwise. Even if modernity erodes traditional practices, especially at the local and familial units of analysis, and increases superficiality, it also creates the material and social conditions for a gentler, and thus, kinder and happier world. The scarcity and insecurity of poorer societies is often characterized by extended tribalism, a bunker mentality, and a dog-eats-dog ethos. Modernity will float or sink based on its own nature and merits, which will become evident over time. It could collapse under its own contradictions, but until it does, I do not think the process can be deliberately stopped.
Liberal Democracy
On a related note, the world will see the continuing decline of Western-style liberal democracy. While the reason for this may be partially ideological, and some of this may be a function of leaders’ desire for power, there is a structural reason for this as well. The classical liberalism of the 19th century, with its ideas of limited government, separation of powers, and vigorous parliamentary debate, was beautiful, and well-adapted to its time. Information moved at a swift but not instantaneous speed. Populations were well-educated but not overwhelmed and saturated with information. Perhaps it was the pinnacle of human ideas on governance but it was suited to specific conditions which could not last.
Nowadays, though, modern technological, security, and economic problems are so complex and proceed at such a fast pace that traditional institutions and non-experts simply cannot react to or understand these issues in time, let alone devise appropriate policies. This is one reason that the U.S. Congress no longer issues declarations of war. Military crises now occur so fast that reactions cannot wait for a legislative debate to play out.
There is now evidence from Asia and the Middle East that the benefits of liberalism — economic prosperity via market economics and individual freedom, wealth, and opportunities — can be achieved without Western-style political liberalism. The demand for that, and its characteristic elements — parliaments and elections — will therefore decline. Of course, conversely, people do like the idea of justice, rule of law, and are against arbitrary dictatorship and tyranny. Putting these two ideas together, a likely outcome is for people across nations to accept outcome-oriented leadership, however it may come to power, so long as it provides security, isn’t too heavy-handed and stifling, and ensures the economic conditions for prosperity.
I do not think that most leaders will explicitly abjure democracy and elections soon. What will prevail is some sort of mixture between neoliberalism and autocracy — sometimes explicit, sometimes implicit. This is sometimes called liberal autocracy. The Sino-Singaporean-Emirati model. To paraphrase Deng Xiaoping, “black cat, white cat, if it catches mice, it’s a good cat.” In other words, realism and pragmatism and solutions should triumph over ideology.
Economic development and personal self-expression will coexist within a political structure that will be run be increasingly through decisions and decrees from top leadership — regardless of the formal political structure of the country — in a way that sidesteps the role of legislatures and bureaucracies and other intermediate, committee-like structures. This is obviously evident in China and the Gulf Arab states, but is true in formal democracies such as Singapore and Israel, and increasingly in other places.
It has been noted that many parliamentary systems — formerly characterized by collective governance by a cabinet accountable to the legislature — are becoming “presidential.” Within presidential systems, like that of the United States, the debate over whether the president should act like a “decider” or “overseer” or as an “executive” or “manager,” has largely been decided in favor of a strong executive.
The Indian Ocean Littoral
I shall briefly note some geopolitical trends. The real hub of world affairs — military, trade, cultural, even touristic — of the next century is going to be the Indian Ocean littoral, that is, the northern shore of the Indian Ocean and the southern coast of Asia. Stretching from East Africa through the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent, and Southeast Asia toward the southern coast of China, this is where the really interesting events and trends of the globe are happening now. Anyone who wants to track how the 21st century will develop should keep a close eye on this area. The majority of the countries on my list lie around this region.
Islam
Though this was not design, half of the twelve countries that I’ve selected to be on this list are Muslim, a religious demographic that inhabits much of the Indian Ocean littoral. This is not surprising, as the Islamic world straddles the central area of the Eurasian civilization oikumene. Because of the enhanced prominence of the Islamic world and Muslims, we can expect Islamic geopolitical and cultural concerns to be increasingly important on the world stage going forward. The global community — the people talking about and influencing and organizing about issues — is now truly global, and is no longer mostly just the West, so the world is going to hear a lot more about Muslim concerns. I wonder, sometimes, if a couple of centuries down the road, the Islamic element will overtake the Western element in the emerging global civilization to become the primary one.
Europe
European culture and history are amazing, and have had a deep impact on the world. However, it is difficult to feel excited about contemporary Europe or its trajectory. I don’t think many Europeans are really that excited about the future either. Europe feels like yesterday’s story. Europe is not at the forefront of technological or economic innovations, or new ideas on political organization. To be blunt, nobody in Asia or Africa or even the Americas is really that interested in emulating European norms or adopting European ideas on just about any of the major issue of the day.
But I don’t want to totally write Europe off, given its concentration of population and wealth, and its beautiful culture. To borrow from philosopher John Rawl’s thought experiment, if everyone in the world were born behind a veil of ignorance and could not know where they would come into the world, most people would probably choose Europe over almost any other place. But creating a pleasant society does not guarantee vibrancy or discoveries or international security. I have included one European country (France) on my list. Unlike many, I don’t think the European Union (EU) is the problem; in fact, a united European nation — a real country with representative institutions, not a sprawling collection of bureaucracies — could better serve European geopolitical and strategic interests than a large number of small, increasingly irrelevant nations.
In regards to other European countries, I did not include Great Britain or Russia on my list. They’re obviously not irrelevant, and have some residual great power capabilities, but are not at the forefront of global trends. They seem to be rapidly losing their ability to influence events in places where their writs formerly ran. Russia is a slowly decaying, kleptocratic polity whose saving grace is its size and military. But British cultural and linguistic influence lives on, all over the world!
The Twelve Countries I’m Tracking
This list of twelve countries is not exhaustive. But I chose them because they are all important players in shaping the world over the course of the next decade. As I’ve noted, they mostly cluster around the Indian Ocean littoral and in Asia. In writing about this region, there many nooks and crannies to explore, and I am genuinely excited about vigor and its future.
1. China
China’s global presence is so ubiquitous that it does not need much in the way of introduction. Today, China gets a lot of attention because of its potential military and geopolitical rivalry with the United States. It also just makes a lot of things in its factories. While I think these are potent issues, I think this is not the main story.
China is central to the 21st century because it has become an economic superpower and channeled that prosperity into development and technology. This, more than the geopolitical or military element, is what is impressive about China: the high-speed trains, the AI, the electric cars. It is hard to miss how efficient, well-ordered, and safe modern China is. At the present moment, China is the engine of the world and the center of applied innovation. It has also mainstreamed the main alternative political system to Western liberal democracy: technocratic authoritarianism, and demonstrated that such a system can work surprisingly well. Governance in the West seems to be flailing in contrast.
I think China will reach the peak of its influence and clout in the next quarter century, as it brings to bear all of its new economic and military power. Afterward, however, it will lose some of its particular advantages as other countries catch up to it or adopt some of its strategies. Meanwhile, China’s population and social coherence will begin to decline. China is a bit soulless in its approach to development and culture and the nations of the world are not lining up to emulate its society or pop culture.
There are a lot of anecdotes and stories by people who have visited China that attest to its development. One interesting book that I read lately what gives a good idea of what’s going on in China is Breakneck by Dan Wang. It describes how China became the world’s factory and how it channeled that wealth into extraordinary development.
2. Korea
This is South Korea’s time to shine. Korea is in a sweet spot where its economy is huge, its companies are producing and selling products across all industries, and its demographic decline — spurred by low birth-rates — hasn’t set in yet. Its culture is ubiquitous across the globe: food, dramas, K-pop. The world is in the midst of the Korean wave (Hallyu) and even people who have never previously been exposed to Korean culture have now heard of Squid Game and KPop Demon Hunters. Korea is in many ways emblematic of the coming dominance — economic, technological, and cultural — of Asia this century.
It is deeply respectable that this relatively small, resource-poor country of 50 million people has become one of the world’s largest economies, a cultural powerhouse, and home to a military that is ranked by some as the fifth-most powerful in the world.
3. Japan
Japan — like Europe — may seem like yesterday’s story at first. After all, it has stagnated for decades, it has a low birth rate like its neighbors, and Korean pop culture seems to have overshadowed Japanese pop culture. But Japan is not in Europe. It is near China, and it will play a role in the development of the Asian century.
Because of its geography and its size — it is almost two-and-a-half times larger than South Korea in terms of population and its economy is still among the top five in the world — Japan will remain relevant, particularly because its story in the 21st century remains deeply intertwined with the rest of Asia’s. We should not forget that it was the first successful model of a non-Western, Asian modernity, showing the way for other nations.
To survive and thrive, Japan must shake itself up, which I suspect it will do, as it has done before, because the alternative is a dead end. Japanese investment, technology, and products will continue to make a difference, especially in countries like India. Its culture, especially anime and games, still attract millions of non-Japanese people, and sushi bars are everywhere. Japan is gradually connecting with the world and becoming less insular. Most importantly, though, if and when Japan reorients its rules of military engagement and geopolitics toward a more assertive stance particularly toward China, it could really be a game-changer because Japan is still a very powerful and industrialized country that controls much of the route from China to the open seas of the Pacific Ocean.
4. Indonesia
Sometimes people refer to Indonesia as the “Brazil of Asia,” a country that is always supposed to make it to the highest ranks of greatness but never does. Many people also note that Indonesia — the fourth most populous country in the world — is the largest country that they never hear about. Maybe this is a good thing because it means that Indonesia is not involved in major conflicts or home to famines.
Indonesia may never have the geopolitical clout of India and China, the role of a global hub like Dubai, or the cultural influence of Korea and Japan. But Indonesia is huge. Its economy is huge and is expected to be amongst the five largest in the world in a century. Its biodiversity and resources ensure that its tourism and natural resource extraction industries will be globally important. Indonesia lies astride the main sea route between India and China, so it is not going to quietly fade into irrelevance anytime soon. Whatever happens in Indonesia impacts a good number of the world’s people so I continue to watch it.
5. India
I might be a bit biased, but India is truly the most exciting story of the century. The Indian nation is the largest nation ever in the history of humanity. There has never been another country in the history of earth with as many people as India.
There are a lot of things going on in India. As many know, the emergence of a single, strong state in the subcontinent that can project power both into the Himalayas and Indian Ocean, is not a frequent historical phenomenon. The emergence of India thus has major geopolitical reverberations throughout Asia and ensures the continuation of great power politics and the balance of power. This is the same reason why I think a united Europe — a single, powerful state that respects the diversity of its constituent but culturally related nations — is the way to go.
India’s economy is booming, and within a few decades, it will become larger than the U.S. economy and perhaps even the Chinese economy. Its growth and development is more organic than China’s, which pushed a singular vision of modernity from the top-down. That’s why India feels more chaotic but more culturally vibrant than China — and I do not want to diminish the enormous provincial and ethnic diversity of China. I do not think that India will ever be as efficient, organized, or internally safe as China, and that may be a weakness going forward, but that isn’t everything. The United States is both more chaotic and more influential and powerful than Europe. Some of India’s states will develop at a faster rate than others and will have different outcomes: this is natural in a country are large as India.
India’s economic boom is in turn fueling a cultural boom, ranging from movies to tourism to food to the shaadi (marriage) industry to religion to the renovation of heritage sites. As India’s diaspora continues to grow — it is increasingly said that Indians “are everywhere” — this culture will have a deepening global impact. The writer and economist Noah Smith has a lot of good posts on India. I recommend reading them for the bullish case on India. (All of Smith’s stuff is worth reading. I appreciate his analyses on the emerging world order, social trends, economics, Asia, and technology.)
6. Pakistan
Pakistan is often written off as a basket case and a failed state, but the situation is more complex and interesting. I do not think Pakistan will collapse or implode, though it will not become prosperous and stable either.
It will soon overtake Indonesia to become the world’s most populous Muslim country. It is perhaps the largest state in the world that isn’t on a clear path to development and prosperity, along with Nigeria. But unlike Nigeria, Pakistan is situated between Iran, India, and China and has a coherent and powerful military, so its combination of military strength with a weak state should produce some interesting outcomes. It is simply, powerful too large and geopolitically well-situated to be ignored. I am extremely curious to see where Pakistan goes in the next few decades. While the Gulf to its west and South and East Asia to its east prosper, will it remain an island of instability and poverty within Asia? Will it find a role as a sort of mercenary state that lends out its military forces to others.
7. United Arab Emirates (UAE)
If there is one place in the world that epitomizes the future, it is Dubai, the largest city in the UAE and the capital of the Emirate of Dubai. I’ve included the UAE in this list because it at the center of a lot of the 21st century’s trends. The rise of the Gulf and alternative, non-Western modernity. The rise of AI and data. Renewed geopolitical competition stretching across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
Dubai is centrally located between Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, and is the perfect hub for business, travel, and cosmopolitan exchanges. Dubai is a microcosm of how the next century of the world is going to look like. Below, I’ve shared a quote, and a link to a Substack post — written by someone who has visited and thought deeply about the city — about why this is the case.
The author, Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI) focused on the intersection of technology, geopolitics, and business in the region, writes about Dubai:
“Languages colliding mid-sentence—Hindi, Arabic, Russian, Tagalog, English, sometimes all within a few steps. You overhear a conversation that starts in one language and ends in another, with the speakers not even noticing the switch. It’s cosmopolitanism without Western reference points. Not apologetic about it either. Just lived. The center of gravity has shifted east. Not as slogan, but in who feels confident, who’s in motion. After spending time there, you see the world as it really was before European hegemony—a place where Asia was always the center, and the West was the periphery….Explaining what’s happening in the Gulf is never straightforward. It’s not Westernization. Not frozen tradition either. Maybe tradition-rooted progressivism. Arab identity-based techno-realism. A worldview comfortable with faith and modernity, sovereignty and global integration, technology over ideology. Not utopian, not apologetic. Pragmatic, confident, forward-looking on its own civilizational terms. When I search for a comparison that helps make sense of it, I keep coming back to Tokyo. Tokyo is one of the few cities where you see truly Eastern progress—hyper-modern, efficient, technologically advanced—yet deeply rooted in its own culture, rhythms, and traditions. Modernity there never feels imported or performative; it feels native.”
As I’ve noted before, many Westerners seem to think that the Arab world is an oppressive and fake place built by slave labor and run by tyrants, or else a hopeless, third-world basket place. If you talk about the amazing development going on in the Gulf, you will often receive a condescending reply. Many smirk at places like Dubai, thinking it is not worth their time or attention to contemplate, let alone visit. As the Financial Times pointed out, “knocking Dubai took over long ago from knocking LA as the blandest opinion in the world. The case for the Gulf city? The transfer of power from the west is visible there as it is nowhere else: in the Asian big-spenders, in the Russian sanction-dodgers. You needn’t like the place, but to not find it stimulating is to not find this century stimulating.”
I also personally prefer visiting ancient cities, like Istanbul, with a lot of history and deeply rooted culture, but it is hard to deny how appealing the glitzy modernity of Dubai is, and how much of a model it has become, especially for people from neighboring places, like India or Egypt. It has become the financial and cultural hub of much of the world. And, to put it bluntly, it excites “brown” people a lot because it gives “brown” people a world-class, hypermodern city of their own. They do not need to fly all the way to the United States to see modernity.
8. Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is a bit like UAE — a formerly traditional Gulf state seeking to establish a modern nation. Some of the issues and attitudes that many have toward Dubai are also reflected in their attitudes toward Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia was long considered to be — for good reason — one of the most traditional and “backward” societies on Earth. But, as I wrote in my post on Asian modernity a few weeks ago, this has changed. It may seem sudden to outsiders, but the groundwork for the shift to modernity has been laid for generations, as prosperity and modern education spread.
But while the UAE is a small, cosmopolitan nation — basically a step above a city-state — Saudi Arabia is a large country with a deeply rooted past. Its influence lies in its wealth — originally from oil, but now reinvested in AI and tech and data centers and other things — and scale combined with its custodianship of the holiest cities of Islam. Thus, despite its modest population, around 35 million, Saudi Arabia has an enormous impact on the evolution of Islam and the norms and beliefs of the Islamic world. In the past few years, we see this, as other countries in the region followed Saudi Arabia’s lead in watering down the impact of political Islam and rushing toward modernization, embracing tourism, and trying to build their own wealth.
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE also have an outsized geopolitical impact on the region, often through funding allied militias and governments. I do not know if Saudi Arabia will always have such an enormous impact — there are many other regional powers — but for the next few decades, it will be one of the most influential countries in the world, and definitely one to watch.
9. Iran
Iran has enormous potential — and it is reaching a point where its trajectory will have to change, as there will be a turnover in the leaders manning its government, with the leadership that emerged in that country after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 passing away.
Before the Revolution, Iran was on track to becoming the one of the largest economies in the world, in addition to geopolitical dominance in the Middle East. Instead, it has wasted away under decades of stagnation and poor relations with its neighbors. Despite recent events, it is still a major regional player, its actions still shake up its neighbors, and if it plays its cards right, it can reemerge to have an impact on the world, just as China did post-Mao. Despite its weaknesses, Iran has had an oversized impact on geopolitics this century.
Because I have studied Iran and Persian culture and language for years, I feel a particular personal disappointment toward its trajectory. I know people who have studied Russia and China who also experienced something similar, that the culture they spent years caring for was not able to thrive because of political and geopolitical conditions.
I sometimes compare Iran to Japan: both countries have extraordinarily appealing and sophisticated cultures, fine arts, calligraphy, art, poetry, and film. One has marketed itself well and become a tourist magnet, whilst the other is often downright hostile to foreigners (visitors to Iran frequently find themselves arrested and essentially held hostage for geopolitical concessions). This is why, above in this post, I wrote about the trend of embracing prosperity, development, and eschewing global isolation. Countries benefit from being part of the world community and having access to trade, technology, and cultural development, rather than wallowing in ideologically self-imposed isolation. This doesn’t mean that they still can’t preserve their own unique political and cultural systems: countries as diverse as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and China do so, whilst also enjoying the fruits of modernity. It just means that a country cannot forever be at war with the world and modern civilization. Iran has begun to discover this.
Iran is on the cusp of reentering the world — though it may retain its own distinct geopolitical imperatives. I am excited to see what comes of this.
10. Turkey
The reemergence of Turkey as a great power is hardly a surprise, given its population, history, and cultural output: Turkish pop culture and dramas are extremely popular throughout the Muslim world. It was only a matter of time before Turkey modernized and became a major player. Like China, it had been eclipsed for a time by the West, but this was only a temporary state of affairs.
Today, Turkey is probably the most powerful country in the Middle East and Balkan regions, and perhaps the foremost country in the Islamic world. It has one of the most powerful armies in the world. It doesn’t have the religious influence of Saudi Arabia or the glitz of Dubai, but it has a diversified and industrialized economy as well a society hospitable to both the West and the Islamic world. It is a very easy society for people from both Europe and the Middle East to feel comfortable interacting with.
Lately, Turkey has asserted itself geopolitically in places ranging from Central Asia to Africa. This is no surprise for a state that sees itself as the successor to the Ottoman Empire.
11. Ethiopia
The final two countries on this list are the only ones not located in Asia. Ethiopia, in northeast Africa, however, is closely tied to the Middle East. With 130 million people, it is the powerhouse of East Africa. It vacillates between regional dominance — its actions having an impact as far afield as the Egypt and the Middle East — and implosion, something that could have a devastation effect on much of Africa. Its potential — its stated goal is to become the “Dubai of Africa” — location and embroilment with regional conflicts and trade, give Ethiopia a geopolitical heft unlike that of any other country in Africa, except, perhaps Egypt. That’s why I follow Ethiopia. Plus, it has an ancient and fascinating culture and great food.
12. France
France rounds out this list. Today, as I’ve noted, Europe produces little in the way of ideas that are shaping the contemporary world. France, however, is unique among European nations. It has land around the world on more continents than any other nation (there is French territory in Europe, North America, South America, Africa, and Oceania). It has indigenous nuclear, aerospace, and emerging technological — AI, for example — capabilities, and is therefore not dependent on the U.S. or China.
France has a unique cultural model and provides the primary cultural alternative to Anglo-American civilizational dominance in the Western world. It has a self-confident national story and ideology that can be forward looking. So, in a sense, France is the heart of Europe. It was the Frankish state that gave Europe its character and direction after the Western Roman collapsed. Might it not play such a role today? Wherever it goes, it will pull Europe in that direction. If European power and influence revive, if its civilization is revitalized, France will play a large role in that process.
Conclusion and Other Thoughts
This list isn’t exhaustive, and I can make a case for including a number of other countries on here. Countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. There is no Germany, no Singapore, no Nigeria, no Brazil, on this list. I have no doubt that they too are important. I have no doubt that Israel will continue to play a major role in the evolution of Middle Eastern geopolitics over the next decade.
This list reflects, to an extent, my personal interests, areas that I am following, along with an attempt to impose some sort of limit on its size. But I do believe that some nations — including all of those on my list — will play a major role in the next decade. Some are signaled out for greatness. Thus, I have thus highlighted them.
I think much of the Middle East and Africa is on the cusp of a boom, of a renaissance, after decades or even centuries of stagnation, poverty, and conflict. Asia is already along that path. Economic prosperity and development and everything downstream of that will prevail because those are the preconditions of national survival in a modern world. And on the personal level, if people are aware of a better life being possible, it is hard to deny them the logic of development. Every peasant in every remote corner of the world is aware that prosperity is possible. They will therefore expect policies from their leaders to provide it.
Despite the potential dangers of great power politics, I believe that, on the whole the socioeconomic trends of the world, are positive. Economically. Socially. And even geopolitically, because more countries feel dignified and respected as they become major powers.
I do have some concern over the cumulative impact of social media, AI, and constantly being plugged into the internet on both individuals and society as a whole. I wonder how modernity can continue forward whilst resolving this issue. The psychologist Jonathan Haidt and others have talked about the “great rewiring” — the rise of a plugged in life, and how this leads to social issues, fragmented attentions, and problems with learning, thinking, and even identity, as the individual brain is hijacked. This video essayist has a good take on the negative relationship between the internet and the individual sense of self.
One way to deal with this issue is to partake in media and activities that do not have what Haidt calls “off-ramps,” things that pull one away from focusing on a single task or mental road. These off-ramps are ubiquitous in the virtual world: hyperlinks, notifications, and bottomless feeds. How well can a mind concentrate if there is constant buzzing around it? In my personal experience, I’ve found that reading a book — preferably a physical one, though a similar experience can be had through audiobook or via Kindle — or listening to a podcast provide singular, linear structures with no off-ramps. They concentrate the mind. This helps sustain attention and deep engagement. More reading and treating the internet more as a tool than as a constant presence: sounds like a good direction to move toward in the coming year.
Below is a picture of a series: the Britannica Great Books of the Western World. I acquired them from an elderly neighbor years ago. I only got to dust them off and arrange them recently. Published in 1952, it contains some of the most important works even written. One can flip a volume open and suddenly find oneself immersed in its contents and learn so much about human nature and history and thought that is applicable and relevant to all times. Although this post has been about contemporary trends and countries that I am following at the present, I find that pairing ancient texts with current knowledge generally leads to a more fulfilling and richer picture.
I really like the list Akhi! I definitely agree about the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The MENA region is full of potential, and I believe it’s on track to become the next Europe in terms of GDP growth and technological development.
Such a great read, thank you for taking the time!